Peptide News Digest

Merck Q2 Tue + Lilly/Novo Q2 Wed Previews, Trump Generic Tariff Timeline Confirmed, CROI GLP-1s in HIV Analysis

Big-3 Q2 earnings preview: Merck Tue, Lilly + Novo Wed. Trump generic tariff schedule: 0% now → 100% Aug 2028 → 200% Aug 2029. CROI GLP-1+HIV analysis.

4 stories · Covering industry, regulatory, research

Editor's Note

Sunday opens the Q2 earnings week for the peptide-and-obesity big three. Merck (NYSE: MRK) reports Q2 2026 earnings before market open Tuesday August 4 with analyst consensus at $16.33 billion revenue and $1.36 diluted EPS (-36.2% year-over-year from $2.13), reflecting Keytruda pricing pressure and the LIPFENDRA (enlicitide) macrocyclic peptide oral PCSK9 inhibitor launch costs following the July 16, 2026 FDA approval. Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) reports Wednesday August 5 with analyst consensus at $20.5 billion revenue and $7.74 EPS, with Foundayo (orforglipron) weekly prescription volumes near 20,000 as the primary analyst focus number; Mounjaro and Zepbound combined for $12.82 billion in Q1 2026 sales (approximately 65% of Lilly total revenue). Novo Nordisk reports H1 2026 results the same Wednesday August 5. President Trump's Truth Social post confirmed the phased generic-drug tariff schedule: zero tariff for two years starting August 1, 2026, then 100% starting August 1, 2028, then 200% starting August 1, 2029. Indian pharmaceutical stocks slumped Friday and Monday on the announcement (India supplies approximately 50% of US generics by volume, over 90% of US prescriptions). Separately, a CROI 2026 analysis presented earlier in 2026 documented that GLP-1 weight-loss medications work well for people living with HIV, may improve liver, gut, and cardiovascular health, and reduce smoking rates alongside the known obesity and diabetes benefits.

Industry

Merck (NYSE: MRK) Q2 2026 Earnings Preview for Tuesday August 4 Before Market Open With Zacks Analyst Consensus at $16.33 Billion Revenue and $1.36 Diluted EPS (-36.2% Year-Over-Year From $2.13 in Q2 2025); Analyst Focus Areas Include Keytruda (Pembrolizumab) Sales Trajectory (Zacks Estimate $8.06 Billion Q2, Driven by Earlier-Stage Indication Uptake and Continued Metastatic-Setting Momentum), the Initial Commercial Launch of LIPFENDRA (Enlicitide) Macrocyclic Peptide Oral PCSK9 Inhibitor Following the July 16 FDA Approval With Peak Sales Potential Estimated at $5 Billion by 2034, and the Emerging Contribution of Winrevair, Welireg, and Capvaxive Plus the Terns and Cidara Acquisitions

Merck (NYSE: MRK) reports Q2 2026 earnings Tuesday August 4, 2026 before market open with Zacks analyst consensus at $16.33 billion revenue and $1.36 diluted EPS (-36.2% year-over-year from $2.13 in Q2 2025). Analyst focus areas: Keytruda (pembrolizumab) sales trajectory with the Zacks estimate at $8.06 billion Q2, driven by earlier-stage indication uptake and continued metastatic-setting momentum ahead of the 2028 US patent cliff; the initial commercial launch of LIPFENDRA (enlicitide) macrocyclic peptide oral PCSK9 inhibitor following the July 16, 2026 FDA approval at $315/month list price ($10.50 per tablet), with peak sales potential estimated at $5 billion by 2034; the emerging contribution of Winrevair (sotatercept for pulmonary arterial hypertension), Welireg (belzutifan for renal cell carcinoma and VHL disease), and Capvaxive (pneumococcal vaccine); and pipeline signal from the Terns Pharmaceuticals and Cidara Therapeutics acquisitions completed in H1 2026. Merck has beaten earnings expectations in each of the trailing four quarters with a 7.75% average earnings surprise. Beyond Q2 specifically, analyst attention will focus on the FY 2026 revenue guidance ($65.8-67 billion range on the prior call) and non-GAAP EPS guidance ($5.04-5.16 range) for revisions.

#merck #mrk #q2-2026-earnings #keytruda #pembrolizumab #lipfendra #enlicitide #winrevair #welireg #capvaxive #earnings-preview
Industry

Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) Q2 2026 Earnings Preview for Wednesday August 5 With Analyst Consensus at $20.5 Billion Revenue and $7.74 EPS Alongside Novo Nordisk H1 2026 Results the Same Day; Primary Analyst Focus Numbers Include Foundayo (Orforglipron) Weekly Prescription Volumes Near 20,000 as the Initial Commercial Ramp Indicator, Mounjaro Sales Trajectory (Q1 2026 Mounjaro + Zepbound Combined $12.82 Billion, ~65% of Lilly Total Revenue), Full-Year 2026 Revenue Guidance Currently at $83-85 Billion, and the Q1 2026 Novo Nordisk Wegovy Pill $354 Million Baseline

Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) reports Q2 2026 earnings Wednesday August 5, 2026 before market open with analyst consensus at $20.5 billion revenue and $7.74 EPS. Primary analyst focus numbers: Foundayo (orforglipron) weekly prescription volumes near 20,000 as the initial commercial ramp indicator following the April 2026 FDA approval as the first oral small-molecule non-peptide GLP-1 receptor agonist; Mounjaro (tirzepatide, type 2 diabetes indication) and Zepbound (tirzepatide, obesity indication) sales trajectory (Q1 2026 combined revenue $12.82 billion, approximately 65% of Lilly total revenue, driven by U.S. commercial volume plus international expansion with aggregate international Mounjaro market share now north of 50% per Lilly executive commentary at Goldman Sachs Healthcare Conference); full-year 2026 revenue guidance currently at $83-85 billion for potential revision; and the international pricing pressure headwind with management guiding low-to-mid-teens price erosion for FY26. Novo Nordisk reports H1 2026 results the same Wednesday August 5. Wegovy pill (oral semaglutide 25/50 mg for obesity) Q1 2026 sales of approximately $354 million provide the H1 baseline for the Novo pill franchise; injectable Wegovy Q1 2026 sales were $18.2 billion Danish kroner (+12% YoY).

#eli-lilly #lly #novo-nordisk #q2-2026-earnings #h1-2026-earnings #foundayo #orforglipron #mounjaro #zepbound #wegovy-pill #prescription-volume #earnings-preview
Regulatory

President Trump's Truth Social Post Confirms Phased Generic-Drug Tariff Schedule Effective August 1, 2026: Zero Tariff for Two Years Starting Today, Then 100% Tariff Starting August 1, 2028, Then 200% Tariff Starting August 1, 2029; The Policy Is Intended to Restore Generic Pharmaceutical Manufacturing to the United States With Companies That Do Not Build US Manufacturing Facing Steep Tariffs After the Two-Year Transition Period; Indian Pharmaceutical Stocks Slumped Friday and Monday on the Announcement Given India Supplies Approximately 50% of US Generics by Volume and Over 90% of US Prescriptions

President Trump's Truth Social post confirmed the phased generic-drug tariff schedule effective Saturday August 1, 2026: zero tariff for two years starting today, then 100% tariff starting August 1, 2028, then 200% tariff starting August 1, 2029. The policy is intended to restore generic pharmaceutical manufacturing to the United States with companies that do not build US manufacturing facing steep tariffs after the two-year transition period. Analysts have observed that the plan is unlikely to trigger a large-scale shift in production to the US within the proposed two-year transition period, citing high manufacturing costs, long regulatory timelines, and the weak economics of producing low-priced medicines locally; industry executives suggest creating a viable generic manufacturing ecosystem in the US could take at least five years. Indian pharmaceutical stocks slumped Friday and Monday on the announcement. The Nifty Pharma index declined 1.90% to 25,591.8 with all 19 index constituents trading lower. Gland Pharma led losses down 4.83% to Rs 2,362.5, Aurobindo Pharma fell 2.87% to Rs 1,534, and Cipla and Lupin dropped as much as 3%. India supplies approximately 50% of US generics by volume and over 90% of US prescriptions. The generic tariff is separate from the Section 232 patented-drug tariff structure that took effect July 31, 2026 for the 17 named companies in Annex III at 100% duty on patented drugs and APIs (reduced to 20% under onshoring agreements).

#trump-administration #generic-tariff #phased-tariff #indian-pharma #onshoring #nifty-pharma #aurobindo #cipla #lupin #gland-pharma #manufacturing-investment
Research

CROI 2026 Analysis (Presented Earlier in 2026 at the Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections) Documents That GLP-1 Weight-Loss Medications Generally Work Well for People Living With HIV on Antiretroviral Therapy and May Improve Liver, Gut, and Cardiovascular Health While Reducing Smoking Rates Alongside the Known Obesity and Diabetes Benefits; Real-World Analysis of People With HIV Prescribed Semaglutide (Wegovy, Ozempic) or Tirzepatide (Mounjaro, Zepbound) Documented Comparable Weight Loss to the General-Population Trial Data With No New Safety Signals Specific to the HIV Population, Making GLP-1 Therapy a Reasonable Consideration in the Approximately 40% of People Living With HIV in the US Who Also Have Obesity

A CROI 2026 (Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections) analysis presented earlier in 2026 documented that GLP-1 weight-loss medications generally work well for people living with HIV who are stable on antiretroviral therapy. Beyond the known obesity and type 2 diabetes benefits, the CROI analysis reported potential improvements in liver, gut, and cardiovascular health, plus reduced smoking rates in the HIV population on GLP-1 therapy. Real-world analysis of people living with HIV prescribed semaglutide (Wegovy, Ozempic) or tirzepatide (Mounjaro, Zepbound) documented comparable weight loss to general-population Phase 3 trial data with no new safety signals specific to the HIV population. Approximately 40% of people living with HIV in the US also have obesity, and cardiovascular disease is one of the primary drivers of morbidity and mortality in the HIV-treated population. The CROI analysis supports GLP-1 therapy as a reasonable consideration in HIV patients with obesity or metabolic-syndrome comorbidities, particularly following the AIDS 2026 conference programming that concluded Friday July 31 in Rio de Janeiro emphasizing the sustained management of HIV alongside comorbid conditions in the current global funding-constrained environment. The finding also intersects with the ongoing peptide-adjacent HIV therapeutic landscape covered by the July 2026 Gilead-Merck ISLEND-1 and ISLEND-2 once-weekly islatravir/lenacapavir data and the Merck alimatravir monthly HIV prevention pill.

#croi-2026 #glp-1 #hiv #comorbidity #semaglutide #tirzepatide #wegovy #zepbound #cardiovascular-health #smoking-reduction #real-world-evidence